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FC Clinceni vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
2/4/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 21Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni33%
×Draw29%
Uta Arad38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.09
Uta Arad
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 116 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
62%
FC Clinceni or Uta Arad
71%
Draw or Uta Arad
67%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
13%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
66%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
30%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
10%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
69%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
33%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
47%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
33%
level
29%
Uta Arad scores more
38%

Uta Arad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: FC Clinceni 0–3 Uta Arad

Uta Arad beat FC Clinceni 3-0 in Liga I on February 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.