Uta Arad 0–1 FC Clinceni: Result & Stats | Liga II

Uta Arad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Clinceni

9/15/2018

Liga II · Round 7Stadionul Motorul (Arad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Uta Arad35%

×Draw25%

FC Clinceni40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchFC Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.49

Uta Arad

1.36

FC Clinceni

1.49

FC Clinceni creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.94

creates per match

1.74

1.24

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.94

FC Clinceni

1.74

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.24

FC Clinceni

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

FC Clinceni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

60%

Uta Arad or FC Clinceni

75%

Draw or FC Clinceni

65%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

16%

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

74%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

39%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

16%

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

77%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

44%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

46%

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.94 + FC Clinceni defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Clinceni attack 1.74 + Uta Arad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uta Arad scores more

35%

level

25%

FC Clinceni scores more

40%

FC Clinceni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff