Uta Arad 1–0 AFC Hermannstadt: Result & Stats

Uta Arad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Hermannstadt

7/26/2025

Liga I · Round 3Arena Francisc Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Uta Arad44%

×Draw28%

AFC Hermannstadt28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uta AradExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.01

Uta Arad

1.33

AFC Hermannstadt

1.01

Uta Arad creates 32% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 138 away

1.25

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Uta Arad

1.25

AFC Hermannstadt

0.90

allows per match

Uta Arad

1.11

AFC Hermannstadt

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw

72%

Uta Arad or AFC Hermannstadt

72%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

56%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+

20%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals

74%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

38%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

15%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

64%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

27%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

61%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Uta Arad scores more

44%

level

28%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

28%

Uta Arad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff