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AFC Hermannstadt vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
4/26/2025Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 6Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt42%
×Draw29%
Uta Arad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.21
Uta Arad
0.97

AFC Hermannstadt creates 25% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 116 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
71%
AFC Hermannstadt or Uta Arad
71%
Draw or Uta Arad
58%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
18%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
70%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
34%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
12%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
62%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
25%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
59%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
42%
level
29%
Uta Arad scores more
29%

AFC Hermannstadt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AFC Hermannstadt vs Uta Arad

AFC Hermannstadt beat Uta Arad 3-0 in Liga I on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.