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Uta Arad vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
5/15/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 35Stadionul Motorul (Arad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Uta Arad60%
×Draw21%
Aerostar Bacau19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
2.08
Aerostar Bacau
1.10

Uta Arad creates 89% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.94
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.24
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
81%
Uta Arad or Aerostar Bacau
79%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
40%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
36%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
87%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
61%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
34%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
67%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
30%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
75%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.94 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Uta Arad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Uta Arad scores more
60%
level
21%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
19%

Uta Arad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uta Arad vs Aerostar Bacau

Uta Arad beat Aerostar Bacau 2-1 in Liga II on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Motorul (Arad).