Aerostar Bacau 1–0 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Aerostar Bacau

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uta Arad

11/10/2018

Liga II · Round 16Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aerostar Bacau37%

×Draw24%

Uta Arad39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aerostar BacauExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.55

Aerostar Bacau

1.50

Uta Arad

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

1.66

creates per match

1.45

1.66

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau

1.66

Uta Arad

1.45

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau

1.66

Uta Arad

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw

61%

Aerostar Bacau or Uta Arad

76%

Draw or Uta Arad

63%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

18%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

78%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

44%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

19%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

79%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

46%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

49%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Uta Arad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Uta Arad attack 1.45 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more

37%

level

24%

Uta Arad scores more

39%

Uta Arad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff