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Ustrem Donchevo vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
FT
2 – 2
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
9/28/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 7Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo35%
×Draw22%
Shumen 200743%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
1.67
Shumen 2007
1.89

Shumen 2007 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
57%
Ustrem Donchevo or Shumen 2007
78%
Draw or Shumen 2007
65%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
17%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
81%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
50%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
23%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
85%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
56%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
44%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
35%
level
22%
Shumen 2007 scores more
43%

Shumen 2007 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ustrem Donchevo 2–2 Shumen 2007

Ustrem Donchevo and Shumen 2007 drew 2-2 in Third League - Northeast on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sgurta in Dobrich.