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Shumen 2007 vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
CANC
14:00
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
5/2/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 26Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200769%
×Draw17%
Ustrem Donchevo14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.54
Ustrem Donchevo
1.04

Shumen 2007 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 105 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
86%
Shumen 2007 or Ustrem Donchevo
83%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
31%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
47%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
92%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
72%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
46%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
65%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
28%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
84%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.54

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
69%
level
17%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
14%

Shumen 2007 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shumen 2007 host Ustrem Donchevo

May 2, 2020: Shumen 2007 take on Ustrem Donchevo in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shumen 2007 host Ustrem Donchevo at Stadion Panayot Volov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.