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Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
8/31/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 3Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo31%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Tervel45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
1.34
Septemvri Tervel
1.66

Septemvri Tervel creates 24% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 104 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
55%
Ustrem Donchevo or Septemvri Tervel
76%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
69%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
14%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
74%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
39%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
15%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
81%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
49%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
41%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.34

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
31%
level
24%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
45%

Septemvri Tervel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Ustrem Donchevo 1–4 Septemvri Tervel

Septemvri Tervel beat Ustrem Donchevo 4-1 in Third League - Northeast on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sgurta in Dobrich.