Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Septemvri Tervel vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
FT
1 – 0
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
3/8/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Septemvri Tervel74%
×Draw15%
Ustrem Donchevo11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
2.71
Ustrem Donchevo
0.94

Septemvri Tervel creates 188% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 105 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
89%
Septemvri Tervel or Ustrem Donchevo
85%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
26%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
53%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
93%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
75%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
50%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
61%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
24%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
87%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.71

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
74%
level
15%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
11%

Septemvri Tervel at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Septemvri Tervel 1–0 Ustrem Donchevo

Septemvri Tervel beat Ustrem Donchevo 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Tervel.