Ustrem Donchevo 0–7 Ludogorets III: Result & Stats

Ustrem Donchevo

FT

0 – 7

Ludogorets III

5/31/2025

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 30Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo28%

×Draw23%

Ludogorets III50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ustrem DonchevoExpected goals in this matchLudogorets III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.88

Ustrem Donchevo

1.35

Ludogorets III

1.88

Ludogorets III creates 39% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 84 away

1.81

creates per match

2.05

1.72

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo

1.81

Ludogorets III

2.05

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo

1.72

Ludogorets III

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Ludogorets III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw

50%

Ustrem Donchevo or Ludogorets III

77%

Draw or Ludogorets III

72%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

12%

Ludogorets III wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

74%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

39%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

15%

Ludogorets III 1+ goals

85%

Ludogorets III 2+ goals

56%

Ludogorets III 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

36%

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

28%

level

23%

Ludogorets III scores more

50%

Ludogorets III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff