Ludogorets III 8–0 Ustrem Donchevo: Result & Stats

Ludogorets III

FT

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Ustrem Donchevo

10/25/2025

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ludogorets III78%

×Draw13%

Ustrem Donchevo9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ludogorets IIIExpected goals in this matchUstrem Donchevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.96

Ludogorets III

3.00

Ustrem Donchevo

0.96

Ludogorets III creates 213% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 105 away

3.38

creates per match

1.24

0.67

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Ludogorets III

3.38

Ustrem Donchevo

1.24

allows per match

Ludogorets III

0.67

Ustrem Donchevo

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw

91%

Ludogorets III or Ustrem Donchevo

87%

Draw or Ustrem Donchevo

22%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+

58%

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals

95%

Ludogorets III 2+ goals

79%

Ludogorets III 3+ goals

56%

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

62%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

25%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)

89%

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.00

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ludogorets III scores more

78%

level

13%

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

9%

Ludogorets III at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff