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Ustrem Donchevo vs Kaliakra 1923 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
CANC
00:00
Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
11/24/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 14Stadion Donchevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo53%
×Draw23%
Kaliakra 192325%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
1.86
Kaliakra 1923
1.20

Ustrem Donchevo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Kaliakra 1923
0.67

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Kaliakra 1923
1.92

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Kaliakra 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
75%
Ustrem Donchevo or Kaliakra 1923
77%
Draw or Kaliakra 1923
47%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
30%
Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
84%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
55%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
28%
Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
70%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
34%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
68%
Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Kaliakra 1923 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kaliakra 1923 attack 0.67 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
53%
level
23%
Kaliakra 1923 scores more
25%

Ustrem Donchevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ustrem Donchevo face Kaliakra 1923 (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Ustrem Donchevo hosting Kaliakra 1923. Match starts November 24, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ustrem Donchevo host Kaliakra 1923 at Stadion Donchevo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.