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Kaliakra 1923 vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Kaliakra 1923
Kaliakra 1923
FT
3 – 0
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
10/20/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 9Gradski stadion (Kavarna)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaliakra 192355%
×Draw20%
Ustrem Donchevo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaliakra 1923
2.24
Ustrem Donchevo
1.46

Kaliakra 1923 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 105 away

creates per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.85
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Kaliakra 1923
1.69
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Kaliakra 1923+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaliakra 1923 ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kaliakra 1923 or draw
75%
Kaliakra 1923 or Ustrem Donchevo
80%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
45%

Winning margin

Kaliakra 1923 wins by 2+
34%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kaliakra 1923 1+ goals
89%
Kaliakra 1923 2+ goals
65%
Kaliakra 1923 3+ goals
38%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
77%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
43%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kaliakra 1923 (draw refunded)
69%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaliakra 1923 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaliakra 1923 attack 1.85 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.24

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Kaliakra 1923 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kaliakra 1923 scores more
55%
level
20%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
25%

Kaliakra 1923 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kaliakra 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Kaliakra 1923 3–0 Ustrem Donchevo

Kaliakra 1923 beat Ustrem Donchevo 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Kavarna).