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Ustrem Donchevo vs Hitrino — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
FT
1 – 2
Hitrino
Hitrino
10/14/2018Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 8Stadion Donchevo (Donchevo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo50%
×Draw23%
Hitrino27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
1.76
Hitrino
1.23

Ustrem Donchevo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 24 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Hitrino
0.75

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Hitrino
1.71

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Hitrino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Hitrino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
73%
Ustrem Donchevo or Hitrino
77%
Draw or Hitrino
50%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
27%
Hitrino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
83%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
52%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
26%
Hitrino 1+ goals
71%
Hitrino 2+ goals
35%
Hitrino 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
65%
Hitrino (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Hitrino away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Hitrino defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.76

Hitrino attack 0.75 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
50%
level
23%
Hitrino scores more
27%

Ustrem Donchevo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ustrem Donchevo vs Hitrino

Hitrino beat Ustrem Donchevo 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on October 14, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Donchevo (Donchevo).