Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hitrino vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
2 – 5
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
10/19/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 10Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino60%
×Draw20%
Ustrem Donchevo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
2.29
Ustrem Donchevo
1.27

Hitrino creates 80% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 105 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
80%
Hitrino or Ustrem Donchevo
80%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
40%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
38%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
90%
Hitrino 2+ goals
66%
Hitrino 3+ goals
40%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
72%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
36%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
75%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.29

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hitrino scores more
60%
level
20%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
20%

Hitrino at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hitrino 2 – 5 Ustrem Donchevo

Ustrem Donchevo beat Hitrino 5-2 in Third League - Northeast on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Hitrino in Hitrino.