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Ustrem Donchevo vs Dobrudzha — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
CANC
00:00
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
4/5/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 22Stadion Donchevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo18%
×Draw18%
Dobrudzha63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ustrem Donchevo
1.28
Dobrudzha
2.48

Dobrudzha creates 94% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.81
Dobrudzha
3.25

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo
1.72
Dobrudzha
0.75

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw
37%
Ustrem Donchevo or Dobrudzha
82%
Draw or Dobrudzha
82%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
7%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
72%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
37%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
14%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
92%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
70%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
23%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Dobrudzha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dobrudzha attack 3.25 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more
18%
level
18%
Dobrudzha scores more
63%

Dobrudzha at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ustrem Donchevo vs Dobrudzha — Match Preview

Ustrem Donchevo face Dobrudzha on April 5, 2020 in this Third League - Northeast fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ustrem Donchevo host Dobrudzha at Stadion Donchevo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.