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Dobrudzha vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
FT
3 – 0
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
10/12/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 9Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha84%
×Draw11%
Ustrem Donchevo5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
3.09
Ustrem Donchevo
0.69

Dobrudzha creates 348% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 105 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
95%
Dobrudzha or Ustrem Donchevo
89%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
16%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
65%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
95%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
81%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
58%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
50%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
15%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
94%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.09

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
84%
level
11%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
5%

Dobrudzha at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dobrudzha vs Ustrem Donchevo

Dobrudzha beat Ustrem Donchevo 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Druzhba in Dobrich.