Ústí nad Orlicí 2–1 Sokol Živanice: Result & Stats

Ústí nad Orlicí

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sokol Živanice

5/24/2025

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 29Stadion TJ Jiskra Ústí nad Orlicí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ústí nad Orlicí43%

×Draw25%

Sokol Živanice32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ústí nad OrlicíExpected goals in this matchSokol Živanice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.29

Ústí nad Orlicí

1.54

Sokol Živanice

1.29

Ústí nad Orlicí creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 64 away

1.20

creates per match

1.14

1.45

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Ústí nad Orlicí

1.20

Sokol Živanice

1.14

allows per match

Ústí nad Orlicí

1.45

Sokol Živanice

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Orlicí ↓

Sokol Živanice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ústí nad Orlicí or draw

68%

Ústí nad Orlicí or Sokol Živanice

75%

Draw or Sokol Živanice

57%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+

21%

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals

79%

Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals

45%

Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals

20%

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals

72%

Sokol Živanice 2+ goals

37%

Sokol Živanice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)

57%

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Orlicí at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Sokol Živanice away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 1.20 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sokol Živanice attack 1.14 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ústí nad Orlicí scores more

43%

level

25%

Sokol Živanice scores more

32%

Ústí nad Orlicí at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ústí nad Orlicí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff