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Sokol Živanice vs Ústí nad Orlicí — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Živanice
Sokol Živanice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ústí nad Orlicí
Ústí nad Orlicí
4/23/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 22Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sokol Živanice53%
×Draw23%
Ústí nad Orlicí24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Živanice
1.77
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.11

Sokol Živanice creates 59% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sokol Živanice
1.66
Ústí nad Orlicí
0.92

allows per match

Sokol Živanice
1.30
Ústí nad Orlicí
1.88

finishing

Sokol Živanice+0.00on par
Ústí nad Orlicí+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Živanice ↓

Ústí nad Orlicí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokol Živanice or draw
76%
Sokol Živanice or Ústí nad Orlicí
77%
Draw or Ústí nad Orlicí
47%

Winning margin

Sokol Živanice wins by 2+
29%
Ústí nad Orlicí wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sokol Živanice 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Živanice 2+ goals
53%
Sokol Živanice 3+ goals
26%
Ústí nad Orlicí 1+ goals
67%
Ústí nad Orlicí 2+ goals
30%
Ústí nad Orlicí 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Živanice (draw refunded)
69%
Ústí nad Orlicí (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Živanice at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

Ústí nad Orlicí away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Živanice attack 1.66 + Ústí nad Orlicí defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ústí nad Orlicí attack 0.92 + Sokol Živanice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Živanice scores more
53%
level
23%
Ústí nad Orlicí scores more
24%

Sokol Živanice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Živanice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Sokol Živanice 2–1 Ústí nad Orlicí

Sokol Živanice beat Ústí nad Orlicí 2-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Náchod v Bělovsi in Živanice.