Ústí nad Labem 2–0 Slovan Liberec II

Ústí nad Labem

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovan Liberec II

3/22/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 19Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ústí nad Labem57%

×Draw21%

Slovan Liberec II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ústí nad LabemExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.27

Ústí nad Labem

2.13

Slovan Liberec II

1.27

Ústí nad Labem creates 68% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 66 away

2.20

creates per match

1.48

1.07

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem

2.20

Slovan Liberec II

1.48

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem

1.07

Slovan Liberec II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Slovan Liberec II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw

78%

Ústí nad Labem or Slovan Liberec II

79%

Draw or Slovan Liberec II

43%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

35%

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

88%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

63%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

35%

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals

72%

Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals

36%

Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

72%

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Slovan Liberec II away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.05 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 2.20 + Slovan Liberec II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Slovan Liberec II attack 1.48 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more

57%

level

21%

Slovan Liberec II scores more

22%

Ústí nad Labem at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff