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Slovan Liberec II vs Ústí nad Labem — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Slovan Liberec II
Slovan Liberec II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ústí nad Labem
Ústí nad Labem
11/24/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 16Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Slovan Liberec II42%
×Draw22%
Ústí nad Labem35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovan Liberec II
1.81
Ústí nad Labem
1.64

Slovan Liberec II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 46 away

creates per match

Slovan Liberec II
2.03
Ústí nad Labem
1.83

allows per match

Slovan Liberec II
1.45
Ústí nad Labem
1.59

finishing

Slovan Liberec II+0.00on par
Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec II ↓

Ústí nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec II or draw
65%
Slovan Liberec II or Ústí nad Labem
78%
Draw or Ústí nad Labem
58%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec II wins by 2+
22%
Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec II 1+ goals
84%
Slovan Liberec II 2+ goals
54%
Slovan Liberec II 3+ goals
27%
Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals
81%
Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals
49%
Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec II (draw refunded)
54%
Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec II attack 2.03 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.83 + Slovan Liberec II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slovan Liberec II scores more
42%
level
22%
Ústí nad Labem scores more
35%

Slovan Liberec II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slovan Liberec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slovan Liberec II vs Ústí nad Labem

Ústí nad Labem beat Slovan Liberec II 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Liberec.