Ústí nad Labem 4–0 Mladá Boleslav II

Ústí nad Labem

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mladá Boleslav II

10/11/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 10Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ústí nad Labem54%

×Draw22%

Mladá Boleslav II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ústí nad LabemExpected goals in this matchMladá Boleslav II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.25

Ústí nad Labem

1.95

Mladá Boleslav II

1.25

Ústí nad Labem creates 56% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 82 away

2.20

creates per match

1.43

1.07

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem

2.20

Mladá Boleslav II

1.43

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem

1.07

Mladá Boleslav II

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Mladá Boleslav II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Mladá Boleslav II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw

76%

Ústí nad Labem or Mladá Boleslav II

78%

Draw or Mladá Boleslav II

46%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

31%

Mladá Boleslav II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

86%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

58%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

31%

Mladá Boleslav II 1+ goals

71%

Mladá Boleslav II 2+ goals

36%

Mladá Boleslav II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

69%

Mladá Boleslav II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Mladá Boleslav II away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 2.20 + Mladá Boleslav II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.95

Mladá Boleslav II attack 1.43 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more

54%

level

22%

Mladá Boleslav II scores more

24%

Ústí nad Labem at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff