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Mladá Boleslav II vs Ústí nad Labem — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Mladá Boleslav II
Mladá Boleslav II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ústí nad Labem
Ústí nad Labem
5/6/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 25Plocha č.2 Mladá Boleslav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mladá Boleslav II37%
×Draw24%
Ústí nad Labem39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav II
1.54
Ústí nad Labem
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 46 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav II
1.49
Ústí nad Labem
1.83

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav II
1.32
Ústí nad Labem
1.59

finishing

Mladá Boleslav II+0.00on par
Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav II ↓

Ústí nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav II or draw
61%
Mladá Boleslav II or Ústí nad Labem
76%
Draw or Ústí nad Labem
63%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav II wins by 2+
18%
Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav II 1+ goals
79%
Mladá Boleslav II 2+ goals
45%
Mladá Boleslav II 3+ goals
20%
Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals
79%
Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals
47%
Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav II (draw refunded)
49%
Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav II attack 1.49 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.83 + Mladá Boleslav II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mladá Boleslav II scores more
37%
level
24%
Ústí nad Labem scores more
39%

Ústí nad Labem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Mladá Boleslav II 2–2 Ústí nad Labem

Mladá Boleslav II and Ústí nad Labem drew 2-2 in 3. liga - CFL B on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Plocha č.2 Mladá Boleslav in Mladá Boleslav.