Ústí nad Labem 1–1 Jablonec II: Result & Stats

Ústí nad Labem

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jablonec II

I. Dao 81'

J. Gasi 54'

3/1/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 16Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ústí nad Labem53%

×Draw23%

Jablonec II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ústí nad LabemExpected goals in this matchJablonec II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.17

Ústí nad Labem

1.86

Jablonec II

1.17

Ústí nad Labem creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

2.20

creates per match

1.26

1.07

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem

2.20

Jablonec II

1.26

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem

1.07

Jablonec II

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Jablonec II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Jablonec II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw

76%

Ústí nad Labem or Jablonec II

77%

Draw or Jablonec II

47%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

30%

Jablonec II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

84%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

55%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

28%

Jablonec II 1+ goals

69%

Jablonec II 2+ goals

33%

Jablonec II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

69%

Jablonec II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.07 · 46 matches

Jablonec II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 2.20 + Jablonec II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.86

Jablonec II attack 1.26 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more

53%

level

23%

Jablonec II scores more

24%

Ústí nad Labem at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Hycka

43'

J. Vosahlik

54'

J. Gasi

61'

D. Brezina

76'

I. Dao← I. Dao

81'

I. Dao

86'

P. Svoboda← P. Svoboda

87'

T. Kubin

89'

L. Husek← L. Husek

90+1'

P. Svoboda

90+2'

D. Breda← J. Hanzlicek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff