Jablonec II 3–1 Ústí nad Labem: Result & Stats

Jablonec II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ústí nad Labem

D. Breda 76', 33'

J. Vosahlik 73'

M. Cervenka 81'

5/21/2025

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 34Stadion Jiskra Mšeno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Jablonec II36%

×Draw23%

Ústí nad Labem41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jablonec IIExpected goals in this matchÚstí nad Labem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.73

Jablonec II

1.61

Ústí nad Labem

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 46 away

1.64

creates per match

1.83

1.64

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Jablonec II

1.64

Ústí nad Labem

1.83

allows per match

Jablonec II

1.64

Ústí nad Labem

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jablonec II+0.00on par

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec II ↓

Ústí nad Labem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jablonec II or draw

59%

Jablonec II or Ústí nad Labem

77%

Draw or Ústí nad Labem

64%

Winning margin

Jablonec II wins by 2+

18%

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jablonec II 1+ goals

80%

Jablonec II 2+ goals

48%

Jablonec II 3+ goals

22%

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals

82%

Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals

52%

Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Jablonec II (draw refunded)

47%

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 80 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec II attack 1.64 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.83 + Jablonec II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jablonec II scores more

36%

level

23%

Ústí nad Labem scores more

41%

Ústí nad Labem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

L. Kostka← L. Kostka

33'

D. Breda

40'

M. Turecek

44'

M. Krulich

56'

L. Kostka

65'

M. Turecek← A. Fantis

65'

P. Moulis← M. Cervenka

73'

J. Vosahlik

73'

T. Grigar

76'

D. Breda

77'

F. Novotny← F. Novotny

81'

M. Cervenka

82'

D. Cerny

84'

M. Krulich← L. Sirucek

86'

L. Sirucek

90+3'

M. Svaty← M. Svaty

90+3'

E. Maly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff