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Ústí nad Labem vs Artis — FNL 2019

Ústí nad Labem
Ústí nad Labem
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Artis
Artis
3/4/2022FNLFNL · Round 17Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ústí nad Labem38%
×Draw27%
Artis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ústí nad Labem
1.29
Artis
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 103 away

creates per match

Ústí nad Labem
1.38
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Ústí nad Labem
1.19
Artis
1.21

finishing

Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ústí nad Labem ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ústí nad Labem or draw
65%
Ústí nad Labem or Artis
73%
Draw or Artis
62%

Winning margin

Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+
17%
Artis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals
72%
Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals
37%
Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals
14%
Artis 1+ goals
71%
Artis 2+ goals
35%
Artis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)
52%
Artis (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ústí nad Labem at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 58 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.38 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Artis attack 1.28 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ústí nad Labem scores more
38%
level
27%
Artis scores more
35%

Ústí nad Labem at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ústí nad Labem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Ústí nad Labem 2–2 Artis

Ústí nad Labem and Artis drew 2-2 in FNL on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Ústí nad Labem.