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Artis vs Ústí nad Labem — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ústí nad Labem
Ústí nad Labem
5/17/2021FNLFNL · Round 24Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Artis49%
×Draw24%
Ústí nad Labem26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.65
Ústí nad Labem
1.14

Artis creates 45% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 58 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Ústí nad Labem
1.19

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Ústí nad Labem
1.76

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Ústí nad Labem+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Ústí nad Labem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Artis or draw
74%
Artis or Ústí nad Labem
76%
Draw or Ústí nad Labem
51%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
26%
Ústí nad Labem wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
81%
Artis 2+ goals
49%
Artis 3+ goals
23%
Ústí nad Labem 1+ goals
68%
Ústí nad Labem 2+ goals
32%
Ústí nad Labem 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
65%
Ústí nad Labem (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Ústí nad Labem away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.76 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Ústí nad Labem defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ústí nad Labem attack 1.19 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Artis scores more
49%
level
24%
Ústí nad Labem scores more
26%

Artis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Artis 1–0 Ústí nad Labem

Artis beat Ústí nad Labem 1-0 in FNL on May 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.