USM Oujda 0–1 Stade Marocain: Result & Stats

USM Oujda

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Marocain

11/9/2025

Botola 2 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

USM Oujda48%

×Draw30%

Stade Marocain23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM OujdaExpected goals in this matchStade Marocain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.75

USM Oujda

1.23

Stade Marocain

0.75

USM Oujda creates 64% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

1.27

creates per match

0.81

0.69

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

USM Oujda

1.27

Stade Marocain

0.81

allows per match

USM Oujda

0.69

Stade Marocain

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par

Stade Marocain+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Stade Marocain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw

77%

USM Oujda or Stade Marocain

70%

Draw or Stade Marocain

52%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+

21%

Stade Marocain wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals

71%

USM Oujda 2+ goals

35%

USM Oujda 3+ goals

13%

Stade Marocain 1+ goals

53%

Stade Marocain 2+ goals

17%

Stade Marocain 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)

68%

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Stade Marocain away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Stade Marocain defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Stade Marocain attack 0.81 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

USM Oujda scores more

48%

level

30%

Stade Marocain scores more

23%

USM Oujda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff