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Stade Marocain vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Stade Marocain
Stade Marocain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
4/26/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Stade Marocain51%
×Draw27%
USM Oujda22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Marocain
1.44
USM Oujda
0.84

Stade Marocain creates 71% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

Stade Marocain
1.51
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Stade Marocain
0.98
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Stade Marocain+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Marocain ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade Marocain or draw
78%
Stade Marocain or USM Oujda
73%
Draw or USM Oujda
49%

Winning margin

Stade Marocain wins by 2+
26%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Marocain 1+ goals
76%
Stade Marocain 2+ goals
42%
Stade Marocain 3+ goals
18%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
57%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
21%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stade Marocain (draw refunded)
70%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Marocain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Marocain attack 1.51 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Stade Marocain defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stade Marocain scores more
51%
level
27%
USM Oujda scores more
22%

Stade Marocain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Marocain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Marocain vs USM Oujda

Stade Marocain beat USM Oujda 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 26, 2026.