Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

USM Oujda vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

USM Oujda
USM Oujda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
3/8/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

USM Oujda45%
×Draw30%
Raja Beni Mellal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Oujda
1.20
Raja Beni Mellal
0.80

USM Oujda creates 50% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 105 away

creates per match

USM Oujda
1.27
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

USM Oujda
0.69
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw
75%
USM Oujda or Raja Beni Mellal
70%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
55%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+
20%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals
70%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
34%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
12%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
55%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
19%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)
65%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

USM Oujda scores more
45%
level
30%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
25%

USM Oujda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: USM Oujda 3–0 Raja Beni Mellal

USM Oujda beat Raja Beni Mellal 3-0 in Botola 2 on March 8, 2026.