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Raja Beni Mellal vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
12/14/2024Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal48%
×Draw29%
USM Oujda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
1.25
USM Oujda
0.77

Raja Beni Mellal creates 62% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.13
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.84
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
77%
Raja Beni Mellal or USM Oujda
71%
Draw or USM Oujda
52%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
22%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
71%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
36%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
13%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
54%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
18%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
68%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
48%
level
29%
USM Oujda scores more
23%

Raja Beni Mellal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs USM Oujda

Raja Beni Mellal and USM Oujda drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal in Beni Mellal.