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USM Oujda vs Olympique Dcheïra — Botola 2 2025

USM Oujda
USM Oujda
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
2/22/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

USM Oujda44%
×Draw29%
Olympique Dcheïra27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Oujda
1.23
Olympique Dcheïra
0.91

USM Oujda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 104 away

creates per match

USM Oujda
1.27
Olympique Dcheïra
1.12

allows per match

USM Oujda
0.69
Olympique Dcheïra
1.18

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par
Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Olympique Dcheïra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw
73%
USM Oujda or Olympique Dcheïra
71%
Draw or Olympique Dcheïra
56%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+
19%
Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals
71%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
35%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
13%
Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
60%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
23%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)
61%
Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Olympique Dcheïra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.18 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.12 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

USM Oujda scores more
44%
level
29%
Olympique Dcheïra scores more
27%

USM Oujda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Oujda vs Olympique Dcheïra

USM Oujda beat Olympique Dcheïra 3-2 in Botola 2 on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oujda.