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Olympique Dcheïra vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Dcheïra
Olympique Dcheïra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
2/26/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Ahmed Fana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Olympique Dcheïra53%
×Draw27%
USM Oujda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Dcheïra
1.41
USM Oujda
0.74

Olympique Dcheïra creates 91% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

creates per match

Olympique Dcheïra
1.44
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Olympique Dcheïra
0.78
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Olympique Dcheïra+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Dcheïra ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Olympique Dcheïra or draw
80%
Olympique Dcheïra or USM Oujda
73%
Draw or USM Oujda
47%

Winning margin

Olympique Dcheïra wins by 2+
26%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olympique Dcheïra 1+ goals
76%
Olympique Dcheïra 2+ goals
41%
Olympique Dcheïra 3+ goals
17%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
52%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
17%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Olympique Dcheïra (draw refunded)
73%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Dcheïra at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.78 · 105 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Dcheïra attack 1.44 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Olympique Dcheïra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Olympique Dcheïra scores more
53%
level
27%
USM Oujda scores more
20%

Olympique Dcheïra at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Olympique Dcheïra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Dcheïra vs USM Oujda

Olympique Dcheïra and USM Oujda drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Fana in Dcheïra El Jihadia.