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USM Oujda vs Ittihad Khemisset — Botola 2 2025

USM Oujda
USM Oujda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
4/16/2022Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 25Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

USM Oujda46%
×Draw29%
Ittihad Khemisset25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Oujda
1.27
Ittihad Khemisset
0.86

USM Oujda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

USM Oujda
1.27
Ittihad Khemisset
1.03

allows per match

USM Oujda
0.69
Ittihad Khemisset
1.27

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par
Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Ittihad Khemisset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw
75%
USM Oujda or Ittihad Khemisset
71%
Draw or Ittihad Khemisset
54%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+
21%
Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals
72%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
36%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
14%
Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
58%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
21%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)
65%
Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Ittihad Khemisset away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.27 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ittihad Khemisset attack 1.03 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

USM Oujda scores more
46%
level
29%
Ittihad Khemisset scores more
25%

USM Oujda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: USM Oujda 3–0 Ittihad Khemisset

USM Oujda beat Ittihad Khemisset 3-0 in Botola 2 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oujda.