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Ittihad Khemisset vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Ittihad Khemisset
Ittihad Khemisset
FT
1 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
11/27/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 10Stade Maamoura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ittihad Khemisset45%
×Draw30%
USM Oujda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Khemisset
1.18
USM Oujda
0.81

Ittihad Khemisset creates 46% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.99
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Ittihad Khemisset
0.92
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Ittihad Khemisset+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Khemisset ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ittihad Khemisset or draw
75%
Ittihad Khemisset or USM Oujda
70%
Draw or USM Oujda
55%

Winning margin

Ittihad Khemisset wins by 2+
19%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ittihad Khemisset 1+ goals
69%
Ittihad Khemisset 2+ goals
33%
Ittihad Khemisset 3+ goals
12%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
56%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
19%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Khemisset (draw refunded)
64%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Khemisset at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Khemisset attack 0.99 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.18

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Ittihad Khemisset defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ittihad Khemisset scores more
45%
level
30%
USM Oujda scores more
25%

Ittihad Khemisset at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ittihad Khemisset will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Khemisset vs USM Oujda

Ittihad Khemisset beat USM Oujda 1-0 in Botola 2 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Maamoura in Khémisset.