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USM Oujda vs Ittifaq Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

USM Oujda
USM Oujda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ittifaq Marrakech
Ittifaq Marrakech
3/5/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

USM Oujda51%
×Draw30%
Ittifaq Marrakech19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Oujda
1.23
Ittifaq Marrakech
0.63

USM Oujda creates 95% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

creates per match

USM Oujda
1.27
Ittifaq Marrakech
0.57

allows per match

USM Oujda
0.69
Ittifaq Marrakech
1.20

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par
Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Ittifaq Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw
81%
USM Oujda or Ittifaq Marrakech
70%
Draw or Ittifaq Marrakech
49%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+
23%
Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals
71%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
35%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
13%
Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals
47%
Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals
13%
Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)
73%
Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Ittifaq Marrakech away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.57 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

USM Oujda scores more
51%
level
30%
Ittifaq Marrakech scores more
19%

USM Oujda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Oujda vs Ittifaq Marrakech

USM Oujda beat Ittifaq Marrakech 2-0 in Botola 2 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oujda.