Ittifaq Marrakech 0–2 USM Oujda: Result & Stats

Ittifaq Marrakech

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

USM Oujda

4/13/2024

Botola 2 · Round 21Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ittifaq Marrakech43%

×Draw30%

USM Oujda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ittifaq MarrakechExpected goals in this matchUSM Oujda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.84

Ittifaq Marrakech

1.17

USM Oujda

0.84

Ittifaq Marrakech creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

0.97

creates per match

0.71

0.97

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

USM Oujda

0.71

allows per match

Ittifaq Marrakech

0.97

USM Oujda

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ittifaq Marrakech+0.00on par

USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittifaq Marrakech ↓

USM Oujda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ittifaq Marrakech or draw

74%

Ittifaq Marrakech or USM Oujda

70%

Draw or USM Oujda

57%

Winning margin

Ittifaq Marrakech wins by 2+

19%

USM Oujda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ittifaq Marrakech 1+ goals

69%

Ittifaq Marrakech 2+ goals

33%

Ittifaq Marrakech 3+ goals

11%

USM Oujda 1+ goals

57%

USM Oujda 2+ goals

21%

USM Oujda 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ittifaq Marrakech (draw refunded)

62%

USM Oujda (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittifaq Marrakech at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittifaq Marrakech attack 0.97 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Ittifaq Marrakech defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ittifaq Marrakech scores more

43%

level

30%

USM Oujda scores more

26%

Ittifaq Marrakech at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ittifaq Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff