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USM Oujda vs Chabab Ben Guerir — Botola 2 2025

USM Oujda
USM Oujda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
4/5/2026Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

USM Oujda48%
×Draw30%
Chabab Ben Guerir23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Oujda
1.24
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.76

USM Oujda creates 63% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 120 away

creates per match

USM Oujda
1.27
Chabab Ben Guerir
0.83

allows per match

USM Oujda
0.69
Chabab Ben Guerir
1.21

finishing

USM Oujda+0.00on par
Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Oujda ↓

Chabab Ben Guerir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

USM Oujda or draw
77%
USM Oujda or Chabab Ben Guerir
70%
Draw or Chabab Ben Guerir
52%

Winning margin

USM Oujda wins by 2+
22%
Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

USM Oujda 1+ goals
71%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
35%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
13%
Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
53%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
18%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

USM Oujda (draw refunded)
68%
Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Oujda at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.69 · 75 matches

Chabab Ben Guerir away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Oujda attack 1.27 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.83 + USM Oujda defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

USM Oujda scores more
48%
level
30%
Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
23%

USM Oujda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "USM Oujda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Oujda vs Chabab Ben Guerir

USM Oujda and Chabab Ben Guerir drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on April 5, 2026.