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Chabab Ben Guerir vs USM Oujda — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Ben Guerir
Chabab Ben Guerir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
USM Oujda
USM Oujda
1/19/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 15Stade Municipal Ben Guerir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Ben Guerir46%
×Draw31%
USM Oujda23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Ben Guerir
1.14
USM Oujda
0.72

Chabab Ben Guerir creates 58% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 75 away

creates per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.91
USM Oujda
0.71

allows per match

Chabab Ben Guerir
0.74
USM Oujda
1.37

finishing

Chabab Ben Guerir+0.00on par
USM Oujda+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Ben Guerir ↓

USM Oujda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chabab Ben Guerir or draw
77%
Chabab Ben Guerir or USM Oujda
69%
Draw or USM Oujda
54%

Winning margin

Chabab Ben Guerir wins by 2+
20%
USM Oujda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chabab Ben Guerir 1+ goals
68%
Chabab Ben Guerir 2+ goals
32%
Chabab Ben Guerir 3+ goals
11%
USM Oujda 1+ goals
51%
USM Oujda 2+ goals
16%
USM Oujda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chabab Ben Guerir (draw refunded)
66%
USM Oujda (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Ben Guerir at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.74 · 118 matches

USM Oujda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.37 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Ben Guerir attack 0.91 + USM Oujda defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

USM Oujda attack 0.71 + Chabab Ben Guerir defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chabab Ben Guerir scores more
46%
level
31%
USM Oujda scores more
23%

Chabab Ben Guerir at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chabab Ben Guerir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab Ben Guerir 1–1 USM Oujda

Chabab Ben Guerir and USM Oujda drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Ben Guerir in Ben Guerir.