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USM Bel Abbes vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
12/21/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Bel Abbes39%
×Draw29%
USM Alger31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Bel Abbes
1.15
USM Alger
0.99

USM Bel Abbes creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 123 away

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.16
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.11
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw
69%
USM Bel Abbes or USM Alger
71%
Draw or USM Alger
61%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
16%
USM Alger wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
68%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
32%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
11%
USM Alger 1+ goals
63%
USM Alger 2+ goals
26%
USM Alger 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
56%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

USM Alger attack 0.87 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more
39%
level
29%
USM Alger scores more
31%

USM Bel Abbes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Bel Abbes vs USM Alger

USM Bel Abbes beat USM Alger 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès).