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USM Alger vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

USM Alger
USM Alger
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
2/9/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

USM Alger62%
×Draw23%
USM Bel Abbes15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Alger
1.71
USM Bel Abbes
0.69

USM Alger creates 148% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 46 away

creates per match

USM Alger
1.68
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

USM Alger
0.76
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

USM Alger+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Alger ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

USM Alger or draw
85%
USM Alger or USM Bel Abbes
77%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
38%

Winning margin

USM Alger wins by 2+
35%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

USM Alger 1+ goals
82%
USM Alger 2+ goals
51%
USM Alger 3+ goals
24%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
50%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
15%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

USM Alger (draw refunded)
81%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Alger at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 122 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Alger attack 1.68 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + USM Alger defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

USM Alger scores more
62%
level
23%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
15%

USM Alger at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "USM Alger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: USM Alger vs USM Bel Abbes

USM Alger beat USM Bel Abbes 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Omar Hamadi (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).