USM Bel Abbes 1–0 Tadjenant: Result & Stats

USM Bel Abbes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tadjenant

4/21/2019

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

USM Bel Abbes52%

×Draw25%

Tadjenant23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USM Bel AbbesExpected goals in this matchTadjenant

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.99

USM Bel Abbes

1.61

Tadjenant

0.99

USM Bel Abbes creates 63% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.16

creates per match

0.87

1.11

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes

1.16

Tadjenant

0.87

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes

1.11

Tadjenant

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Tadjenant+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

Tadjenant →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw

77%

USM Bel Abbes or Tadjenant

75%

Draw or Tadjenant

48%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+

27%

Tadjenant wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals

80%

USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals

48%

USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals

22%

Tadjenant 1+ goals

63%

Tadjenant 2+ goals

26%

Tadjenant 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)

69%

Tadjenant (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Tadjenant away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + Tadjenant defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more

52%

level

25%

Tadjenant scores more

23%

USM Bel Abbes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff