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Tadjenant vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

Tadjenant
Tadjenant
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
10/23/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadjenant55%
×Draw29%
USM Bel Abbes15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadjenant
1.30
USM Bel Abbes
0.54

Tadjenant creates 141% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tadjenant
0.87
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

Tadjenant
0.47
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

Tadjenant+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadjenant ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tadjenant or draw
85%
Tadjenant or USM Bel Abbes
71%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
45%

Winning margin

Tadjenant wins by 2+
27%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tadjenant 1+ goals
73%
Tadjenant 2+ goals
37%
Tadjenant 3+ goals
14%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
42%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
10%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tadjenant (draw refunded)
78%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadjenant at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadjenant attack 0.87 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.30

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + Tadjenant defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tadjenant scores more
55%
level
29%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
15%

Tadjenant at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tadjenant will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tadjenant vs USM Bel Abbes

Tadjenant and USM Bel Abbes drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on October 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stade Ismail Lahoua (Tadjenanet).