USM Bel Abbes vs RC Relizane — Ligue 1 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
USM Bel Abbes56%
RC Relizane21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
USM Bel Abbes creates 80% more chances
Season form · 44 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
USM Bel Abbes ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches
RC Relizane away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.42 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
USM Bel Abbes attack 1.14 + RC Relizane defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.78
RC Relizane attack 0.84 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
USM Bel Abbes at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
RC Relizane substitutes
USM Alger
JS Kabylie
Paradou AC
JS Saoura
ES Setif
MC Alger
CS Constantine
CR Belouizdad
Bordj BOU Arreridj
MC Oran
Hussein Dey
AS AIN MlilaUSM Bel Abbes
MO Bejaia
Olympique Medea
TadjenantIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
USM Bel Abbes host RC Relizane on Monday, 9 August 2021 at 20:00. The match is part of the Ligue 1 2018/2019 season.
USM Bel Abbes 2 – 2 RC Relizane
USM Bel Abbes and RC Relizane drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on August 9, 2021.
Goals: M. Hamza (15'), M. Itim (67'), W. Hellal (82'), C. Mazari (90').
The match was played at Stade du 24 février 1956 in Sidi Bel Abbès.