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RC Relizane vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

RC Relizane
RC Relizane
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
11/4/2016Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane48%
×Draw26%
USM Bel Abbes25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Relizane
1.46
USM Bel Abbes
0.97

RC Relizane creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 46 away

creates per match

RC Relizane
1.18
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

RC Relizane
1.33
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw
75%
RC Relizane or USM Bel Abbes
74%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
52%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+
24%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals
77%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
43%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
18%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
62%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
25%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)
66%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

RC Relizane scores more
48%
level
26%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
25%

RC Relizane at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RC Relizane vs USM Bel Abbes

RC Relizane beat USM Bel Abbes 2-0 in Ligue 1 on November 4, 2016.

The match was played at Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane).