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USM Bel Abbes vs MO Bejaia — Ligue 1 2018

USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
10/9/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

USM Bel Abbes48%
×Draw27%
MO Bejaia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Bel Abbes
1.42
MO Bejaia
0.96

USM Bel Abbes creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.16
MO Bejaia
0.80

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.11
MO Bejaia
1.67

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par
MO Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

MO Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw
75%
USM Bel Abbes or MO Bejaia
73%
Draw or MO Bejaia
52%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
23%
MO Bejaia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
76%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
41%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
17%
MO Bejaia 1+ goals
62%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
25%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
65%
MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

MO Bejaia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + MO Bejaia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

MO Bejaia attack 0.80 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more
48%
level
27%
MO Bejaia scores more
25%

USM Bel Abbes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Bel Abbes 2–2 MO Bejaia

USM Bel Abbes and MO Bejaia drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on October 9, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès).