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MO Bejaia vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

MO Bejaia
MO Bejaia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
4/1/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

MO Bejaia50%
×Draw30%
USM Bel Abbes20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MO Bejaia
1.23
USM Bel Abbes
0.67

MO Bejaia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 46 away

creates per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

MO Bejaia
0.73
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

MO Bejaia+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MO Bejaia ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

MO Bejaia or draw
80%
MO Bejaia or USM Bel Abbes
70%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
50%

Winning margin

MO Bejaia wins by 2+
23%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

MO Bejaia 1+ goals
71%
MO Bejaia 2+ goals
35%
MO Bejaia 3+ goals
13%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
49%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
15%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

MO Bejaia (draw refunded)
71%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MO Bejaia at home — creates 0.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MO Bejaia attack 0.73 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + MO Bejaia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

MO Bejaia scores more
50%
level
30%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
20%

MO Bejaia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "MO Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MO Bejaia vs USM Bel Abbes

MO Bejaia beat USM Bel Abbes 1-0 in Ligue 1 on April 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).