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USM Bel Abbes vs CS Constantine — Ligue 1 2018

USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CS Constantine
CS Constantine
11/23/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

USM Bel Abbes38%
×Draw29%
CS Constantine33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USM Bel Abbes
1.14
CS Constantine
1.04

USM Bel Abbes creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 124 away

creates per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.16
CS Constantine
0.96

allows per match

USM Bel Abbes
1.11
CS Constantine
1.12

finishing

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par
CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USM Bel Abbes ↓

CS Constantine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

USM Bel Abbes or draw
67%
USM Bel Abbes or CS Constantine
71%
Draw or CS Constantine
62%

Winning margin

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
16%
CS Constantine wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
68%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
32%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
11%
CS Constantine 1+ goals
65%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
28%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
54%
CS Constantine (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USM Bel Abbes at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USM Bel Abbes attack 1.16 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

USM Bel Abbes scores more
38%
level
29%
CS Constantine scores more
33%

USM Bel Abbes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "USM Bel Abbes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: USM Bel Abbes 2–1 CS Constantine

USM Bel Abbes beat CS Constantine 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 24 février 1956 (Sidi Bel Abbès).