CS Constantine 3–0 USM Bel Abbes: Result & Stats

CS Constantine

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

USM Bel Abbes

9/10/2018

Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Mohamed-Hamlaoui (Constantine)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CS Constantine60%

×Draw25%

USM Bel Abbes15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS ConstantineExpected goals in this matchUSM Bel Abbes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.68

CS Constantine

1.62

USM Bel Abbes

0.68

CS Constantine creates 138% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 46 away

1.50

creates per match

0.61

0.74

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

CS Constantine

1.50

USM Bel Abbes

0.61

allows per match

CS Constantine

0.74

USM Bel Abbes

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Constantine+0.00on par

USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Constantine ↓

USM Bel Abbes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CS Constantine or draw

85%

CS Constantine or USM Bel Abbes

75%

Draw or USM Bel Abbes

40%

Winning margin

CS Constantine wins by 2+

33%

USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CS Constantine 1+ goals

80%

CS Constantine 2+ goals

48%

CS Constantine 3+ goals

22%

USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals

49%

USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals

15%

USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

CS Constantine (draw refunded)

80%

USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Constantine at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.74 · 125 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Constantine attack 1.50 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + CS Constantine defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CS Constantine scores more

60%

level

25%

USM Bel Abbes scores more

15%

CS Constantine at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CS Constantine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff